Thursday, October 27, 2011

Survival – The Reason I am going to LESS 2011

There are plenty of good reasons to go to the LESS 2011 management conference. Most of them have to do with fun–not clowning around fun (which has its merits)–but with the doing-meaningful-work and living a life of purpose kind of fun.

However, there is another reason: Survival!

According to John Hagell III, in 1937 the average life expectancy of a Standards & Poor Fortune 500 company was 75 years. Today, it is about 15 years. Let's be a little bit simplistic about this, and draw a straight line between the two data points. Then let's be a bit adventurous, and extrapolate into the future.

If this simple projection holds, by 2030, there won't be any S&P Fortune 500 companies.

I am sure you can see the flaws in this simple model as well as I can:

  • There are only two data points. It is very easy to draw the wrong conclusions when using to few data points. (Though many companies are perfectly happy to use a single data point, which enables them to interpret it anyway they want. But I digress.)
  • The model is linear. Reality is rarely linear.
  • It'll never happen because something else will happen that changes the game.
All true. Nevertheless, this simple projection does indicate that we are heading for some serious change, one way or another.

The change may be good or bad, but it will happen. Shift happens!

If you are in the water, and a great wave comes along, two things can happen: You are crushed by it, or you surf on it.

Which would you rather do?

I am going to LESS 2011 to meet with a gang of surfers, to talk about surfing the waves of change, and to have a blast while doing it.

If you want to be a surfer to, join in at LESS 2011. If you can't be there, why not check out the people speaking there, and ask a couple of them to visit you and share what they know. About surfing the wave of change. About survival. About having fun and meaningful work.

No comments: